Answers
Will a heat pump lower my electric bill?
If you heat with electric resistance, yes, and installers report forty to fifty percent heating reductions.
The short answer
If you heat with baseboard, wall heaters or an electric furnace, yes, and the change is usually large: installers report heating bills dropping forty to fifty percent on that conversion. If you heat with gas, oil or propane, your electric bill will rise while the fuel bill falls, so compare total energy cost rather than one line.
Why the electric-resistance case is so strong
Resistance heat converts one unit of electricity into one unit of heat and can do no better. A heat pump moves heat instead of making it, so it delivers several units for the same electricity. The Seattle Times puts variable-speed equipment at as much as five times the efficiency of baseboard or electric forced air. Installers report heating bills dropping forty to fifty percent on real conversions. Both are attributed figures, not our own measurements.
Fuel switching moves cost between bills
Converting a Cascade gas furnace to a heat pump takes load off your gas bill and adds it to your PSE bill. Whether the total goes up or down depends on the rate you pay for each and on how efficient your existing furnace is. This is the honest weakness in the gas-conversion pitch here, and it is compounded by the fact that Bellingham gas customers get no PSE fuel-switching rebate.
What can eat the savings
Three things, in our experience. Backup strip heat left unlocked so it satisfies the thermostat before the compressor does. Deep nightly setbacks that force full-power recovery every morning instead of letting the inverter modulate. And an oversized system that short cycles instead of running long and slow. All three are commissioning and habit problems rather than equipment problems.
The building envelope decides the ceiling
A heat pump reduces the cost of each unit of heat; it does not reduce how much heat your house loses. An uninsulated attic over a 1960s rambler will keep the bill high regardless of what is bolted to the wall outside. PSE pays weatherization as an instant rebate at $1.75 per square foot for attic up to $3,500, so tightening first and sizing second is both cheaper and better.
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